Estimated fair value of Country Garden Holdings Company Limited (HKG: 2007)

Today we are going to give a simple overview of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Country Garden Holdings Company Limited (HKG:2007) as an investment opportunity by taking the flows of expected future cash flows and discounting them to the present value. Our analysis will use the discounted cash flow (DCF) model. Before you think you can’t figure it out, just read on! It’s actually a lot less complex than you might imagine.

Businesses can be valued in many ways, which is why we emphasize that a DCF is not perfect for all situations. For those who are passionate about equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis template here may be something that interests you.

Check out our latest analysis for Country Garden Holdings

The method

We have to calculate the value of Country Garden Holdings slightly differently than other stocks because it is a real estate company. In this approach, dividends per share (DPS) are used, because free cash flow is difficult to estimate and often not reported by analysts. Unless a company pays the majority of its FCF as a dividend, this method will generally underestimate the value of the stock. We use Gordon’s growth model, which assumes that the dividend will grow in perpetuity at a rate that can be sustained. For a number of reasons, a very conservative growth rate is used which cannot exceed that of a company’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In this case, we used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.6%). The expected dividend per share is then discounted to its present value at a cost of equity of 8.3%. Compared to the current share price of HK$2.0, the company appears to be about fair value at a 1.1% discount to the current share price. Remember though that this is only a rough estimate, and like any complex formula – trash in, trash out.

Value per share = Expected dividend per share / (Discount rate – Perpetual growth rate)

= CN¥0.1 / (8.3% – 1.6%)

= HK$2.0

SEHK: 2007 Discounted Cash Flow October 5, 2022

The hypotheses

The above calculation is highly dependent on two assumptions. One is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don’t have to agree with these entries, I recommend that you redo the calculations yourself and play around with them. The DCF also does not take into account the possible cyclicality of an industry, nor the future capital needs of a company, so it does not give a complete picture of a company’s potential performance. Since we view Country Garden Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which factors in debt. In this calculation, we used 8.3%, which is based on a leveraged beta of 1.375. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility relative to the market as a whole. We derive our beta from the average industry beta of broadly comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable company.

Let’s move on :

Although important, the DCF calculation is just one of many factors you need to assess for a business. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead, the best use of a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company’s cost of equity or the risk-free rate can have a significant impact on the valuation. For Country Garden Holdings, there are three relevant items you should explore:

  1. Risks: For example, we discovered 4 warning signs for Country Garden Holdings (2 doesn’t sit too well with us!) which you should be aware of before investing here.
  2. Future earnings: How does the 2007 growth rate compare to its peers and the market in general? Dive deeper into the analyst consensus figure for the coming years by interacting with our free analyst growth forecast chart.
  3. Other strong companies: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are essential to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with strong trading fundamentals to see if there are any other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app performs an updated cash flow assessment for each SEHK stock every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks, search here.

This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks and does not take into account your objectives or financial situation. Our goal is to bring you targeted long-term analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest announcements from price-sensitive companies or qualitative materials. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

Valuation is complex, but we help make it simple.

Find out if Country gardens is potentially overvalued or undervalued by viewing our full analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider trading and financial health.

See the free analysis